INDIA US TRADE DEAL IMPACT ON THE MARKET

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Market Commentary: Cautious Sentiment Amid India-US Trade Negotiations

The long-awaited India-US trade deal remains under discussion, with the fifth round of Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) negotiations recently concluded. Despite this, the market has shown no significant momentum, reflecting investor caution.
In the current scenario, option writers may find short-term opportunities, while long-term investors are adopting a wait-and-watch approach, awaiting clarity on the final outcome of the trade deal.

Fund Flow Analysis: April to June Trends

During April, May, and June, the markets experienced strong fund inflows, signaling bullish undertones. However, in recent sessions, FIIs and DIIs have been relatively inactive.
Low activity in stock deliveries, trading volumes, and fresh fund inflows indicates a phase of consolidation, with participants waiting for stronger signals before taking new positions.

Nifty Technical Levels to Watch

  • Support Zone: A pullback towards the 24,500–24,600 range may offer a strategic entry point for investors, as this zone has previously acted as a reliable support.

  • Breakdown Risk: A decisive breach below 24,500 could trigger a significant correction, given the presence of substantial institutional holdings at these levels.

Outlook

Until a clear resolution emerges on the India-US trade agreement, the market is likely to remain range-bound and volatile.
If the deal is finalized favorably, it could trigger a bullish breakout. Conversely, any further delay or negative developments may lead to increased downside pressure.

Conclusion:
Traders should remain nimble, while investors may consider accumulating on dips near key support levels. Patience and risk management are essential in this phase of market uncertainty.

Note: This is a market opinion and not investment advice. Please consult your financial advisor before making any decisions.


Location: Ludhiana, Punjab, India

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